Trump Tariffs Impact: Pakistan, Turkey, Kenya, and Mexico Likely to Benefit from India’s Setback

Business News:Today, 27 August 2025, the US has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods. This decision is expected to affect India's exports to the US by about 66%. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India's exports to the US were $86.5 billion in FY 2025, which may fall to $49.6 billion in FY 2026.

Which industries will be affected

The 50% tariff will have the biggest impact on industries that export to the US. This includes auto parts, textiles, clothing, gems and jewelry, shrimp, carpets, and furniture. The US is India's largest importer, so this decision will directly impact India's GDP and employment. Experts say that this may increase unemployment in many export hubs and weaken India's share in the global trade chain.

Other countries will benefit

Increasing tariffs on India will give a competitive advantage to other countries. US importers can now turn to countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, and Pakistan, as these countries have lower tariffs.

The new tariff rates are as follows:

• Myanmar – 40%
• Thailand and Cambodia – 36%
• Bangladesh – 35%
• Indonesia – 32%
• China and Sri Lanka – 30%
• Malaysia – 25%
• Philippines and Vietnam – 20%
• Pakistan – 19%
• Turkey – 15%

This means that the US can now buy goods from these countries cheaper and easily.

Challenges facing India

According to GTRI, a 50% tariff is a huge blow to India. India's hold on America's labor-intensive market will weaken. There is a risk of increasing unemployment in many export centers. Along with this, India's participation in the global value chain may also decrease.

Experts say that China, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, Pakistan, Nepal, Guatemala, and Kenya can take advantage of this opportunity. Even if the tariff is removed in the future, it may still be challenging for India to return to the US market.